FILE – Georgia offensive lineman Warren Ericson (50) and Alabama wide receiver Slade Bolden (18) play during the second half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game, Saturday, Dec. 4, 2021, in Atlanta. Those Georgia Bulldogs aren’t the only ones having a devil of a time beating fellow Southeastern Conference powerhouse Alabama. They’re just the only one that gets another shot in the biggest game of them all. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson, File)
- The 2021-22 College Football Playoff National Championship Game will be played on Monday (January 10th)
- 70% of the ATS tickets and betting handle is currently backing #1 Alabama as 3-point underdogs vs #3 Georgia
- Read below for CFP National Championship Game betting trends and money percentages
For the second time this season, #1 Alabama will square off with #3 Georgia. This time however, the stakes are much higher.
Last month, the Crimson Tide trounced the Bulldogs in the SEC title game as an underdog, but despite that result they’re once again a ‘dog against Georgia in Monday’s National Championship Game. These two conference rivals also met in 2018 for the National title, with Alabama prevailing in that matchup as well.
Perhaps the Crimson Tide’s dominance over the Bulldogs is what’s fuelling the betting action ahead of Monday’s massive showdown. Since betting lines opened on January 1st, 70% of the against the spread wagers are on Alabama +3, as well as 70% of the ATS money.
#1 Alabama vs #3 Georgia Betting Trends
|Team||% of ATS Bets / % of ATS Money||% of ML Bets / % of ML Money||% of Totals Bets / % of Totals Money|
|Alabama Crimson Tide||70% / 70%||83% / 77%||Ov 68% / 70%|
|Georgia Bulldogs||30% / 30%||17% / 23%||Un 32% / 30%|
All data via DraftKings.
Per the College Football public betting trends, Over 52 points is garnering 68% of the total bets, as well as 70% of the over/under handle.
CFP National Championship Game Betting Trends
Before rushing to the window to bet the Crimson Tide consider the following. This will be the sixth time in the BCS/CFP era that the National Championship Game has been a rematch from the regular season. In each of those six instances, the team that lost in the regular season has won the National Title.
“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” – the public
SEC Championship: 72% of spread bets on Georgia -6.5, 62% of ML bets on Georgia -260
National Championship: 70% of spread bets on Alabama +3, 77% of ML bets on Alabama +125
— Simon Gibbs (@SimonGibbs26) January 9, 2022
Alabama is looking to become just the third preseason betting favorite to win it all since 2001, but history is not on their side. Preseason favorites are 2-6 outright in the National Championship Game since 2001, and 1-7 against the spread.
If you’re thinking that makes Georgia an auto bet, not so fast. In the College Football Playoff era, favorites are just 2-5 against the spread in the title game, and have lost four of the seven games outright. The favorite has covered in back-to-back National Championship Games, but no #3 seed has ever claimed the title.
Monday will mark the first time since November 9, 2019 that the #1 seed has been underdog. That day, LSU was an underdog versus the Crimson Tide, and the Tigers promptly won 46-41.
Georgia hate week continues! Possibly the greatest play ever in CFB🔥pic.twitter.com/oVXgQge6Dw
— Barstool Bama🏆🥋 (@BarstoolAlabama) January 6, 2022
As far as Monday’s total goes, there’s a reason why the over is getting a lot of action. Six of the seven CFP National Championship Games have gone over, including the Alabama-Georgia matchup in 2018.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends
Nick Saban’s squad enters Monday having won eight straight. They covered the spread in both the SEC Championship Game and Cotton Bowl, their two biggest games of the season. In fact, the Crimson Tide have fared best over the past two seasons when the competition level has been ramped up.
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) January 7, 2022
They’re 4-2 ATS versus ranked opponents this season, and 5-1 ATS over the past two campaigns against top-5 teams. That includes their 41-24 victory over the Bulldogs in the SEC title game as a 6-point underdog. Overall, they’re 8-6 against the spread this season, 1-0 as an underdog, and 3-0 at neutral site venues.
Total wise, seven of their 14 contests have fallen short of the number, including two of three at neutral sites. Three of their six matchups versus ranked competition have also gone under, but that wasn’t the case when they met Georgia last time. That game produced 65 points, easily surpassing the 48.5-point total.
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Georgia Bulldogs Betting Trends
The Bulldogs on the other hand, bounced back from their SEC Championship Game disappointment to easily cover the 7.5-point spread versus Michigan in the Orange Bowl. They’re 9-5 against the spread overall this season, including 4-2 against ranked opponents. They’re also 3-1 ATS at neutral site stadiums, while head coach Kirby Smart is 5-2 ATS in his coaching career in Bowl Games.
Here’s how Alabama and Georgia have stacked up this season 👀
Which team are you rolling with on Monday? pic.twitter.com/JiXd1YgVV5
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) January 7, 2022
Despite owning the best defense in college football, the under has only been a slightly profitable wager in Georgia games this season. The under is 8-6 in the Bulldogs’ 14 contests, although it has hit five times in six games versus ranked competition. The contest versus the Crimson Tide was the outlier in that regard.
It all comes down to this. Georgia vs Alabama: The Rematch #CFBPlayoff
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) January 6, 2022
However, Alabama-Georgia games have a strong history of outperforming the total. In their last 10 meetings, the over has hit nine times.
Chris began his career at Hockey Night in Canada over 15 years ago. He has since worked at TSN for over 12 years as a writer, line-up producer, field producer, newsroom supervisor for Sportscentre, and presently as a promotions producer.