Roberto Mancini, Italy

Italy made light work of what was expected to be a tough Group A at Euro 2020 and I can’t see Austria causing them too many difficulties this weekend.

Roberto Mancini’s side were as tight at the back as we expected, keeping three clean sheets in the Group stages, but they have been surprisingly inventive up front, creating a string of chances in all their games thus far.

Their opponents will be delighted to have reached the knock-out stages, but they did so by beating North Macedonia and edging out Ukraine – who may have had one eye on avoiding this tie in the Second Round. More significantly against the Netherlands, they were blown away, looking weak in defence and devoid of ideas of up front, and Italy can deliver the same sort of comprehensive victory as the Dutch this weekend.

The first and third in the Dante reoppose in the Irish Derby at the Curragh on Saturday but I think High Definition could reverse that form against Hurricane Lane.

The latter horse went on to finish third in the Derby and may well be better suited by this more conventional track, but High Definition has more potential.

The Aidan O’Brien three-year-old won on both his starts last season and was clearly in need of the run in the Dante after an interrupted start to the campaign. But the way he finished in that race was eye-catching, and we clearly are yet to see the best of him. With even modest improvement, he has the form to win this for a trainer who has won nine of the last thirteen editions of this race.

Denmark are the odds-on favourites for their clash with Wales, and they certainly have all the momentum going into this game, having thrashed Russia to reach the knock-out stages after losing their opening two matches.

By contrast, Wales concluded their Group campaign with a 1-0 defeat against Italy in which they were flattered by the final score. Even so, I think the market has overreacted a little and there could be some value in the Wales price.

The key here could be the fact that they are taking on a mid-ranking side, rather than one of the tournament favourites. Unusually for Wales, Rob Page’s side have looked more effective when they play on the front foot, whereas defensively they appear vulnerable. They will see this as a winnable game and we can expect a relatively open and unpredictable contest as a result. Denmark are rightly favourites, but not by the margins suggested by the current market, and Wales look the best bet here.

Total Odds for this multiple: 19/1. Remember, multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

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