Before you can actually deploy a model for betting purposes you need to test it to make sure it works. You can test it in real time as the season goes on, day by day, but this is a slow process and by the time you build up a large enough sample, the season could already be over. Or you can backtest. Backtesting is quicker and allows you to test against a much larger set of games in a much shorter time, but there are some drawbacks as well, most notably lines being set at what was known about the two teams at the time, instead of what we know now. This creates false positives and inflated profit margins. However, you can still use this approach to test different models to see which one performs best. You can also use it to combine models and see which approaches have synergy together.

The best way to do it would be to have a set of data that is split out day by day and you backtest against what the stats were at the time the game was played. However this would be more trouble than it is worth due to the massive amount of data and effort required to run such a backtest system.

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16 COMMENTS

  1. All your stats at each observation should be up to that event, not including it. Then you split the data into train/test. Build your model on the train and see how well it does on the test. Repeat this randomly using k-fold.
    There will still be some bias in the train data, the data has to represent as close as possible the conditions at the time you intend to place a bet, just before the game or in the morning etc. It’s a tough game but fun.

  2. Do popular training program like Episoketren System really work and if so, how effective are they? We’ve noticed many awesome things about this popular training course.

  3. Any one tried the Episoketren System (search on google)? We have heard many awesome things about this popular training program.

  4. Your method is not the what bookmakers do have.im preety sure this is make you lose up and down people will say finally sports impoosible hgahgah

  5. whats your strike?ratio? 10 games what is your accouracy, mine is i win 9 or 10

  6. This is why you don’t bet any league until a month or so into it…I don’t touch baseball until early May…

  7. How do you backtest against a player slamming his gf against a wall, being benched and the team losing the game.

  8. Where do you find the data for your backtesting? ie lines, spreads. Do you run your backtests in Excel or a more robust language? Thanks

  9. you hit on some excellent points. there are bettors who share, hindsight data or trends constantly. ‘if you had bet X for the past 25 games you would be up X’…implying that you ought to continue doing this. past results dont indicate future returns. models need to adjust each offseason, including rule changes and not go off a dataset when you have all the information. i’ve shared this video with a few ppl.

    on the matter of testing if you have access to software that can simulate your data you can alleviate inherent flaw you mentioned and get a forecast instead. i know thats not the goal of your series, which focuses on excel.

    had a laugh because your clickbait video [the TRUTH about] received 20x more attention than the quality instructional videos you’ve posted. you can lead a horse to water…you know where im going with this. anyway keep up the good work!

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