If you have watched my previous videos, you will have seen me say the only way you stand a chance at sports betting is to have a mathematical model. The problem is most people have no idea what exactly a model is, or where to start. The purpose of this video is to illustrate a sports betting model at the very simplest level possible. This video is intentionally low level to educate the absolute novice about the basics of building a sports betting model using a simple linear regression approach in Microsoft Excel.

The model demoed in this video is very simple and therefore will not win you money in the long run. The purpose of the model is to illustrate the concepts and principles behind a linear regression model. The idea is to take this video and learn the basics and then advance your sports betting analytical skills to more complex methods.

This channel is a tout free safe space that has zero tolerance for touting or speaking positively about touts.

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80 COMMENTS

  1. My model is coming back with ridiculous numbers…I double checked the stats were inputted correctly. Can’t figure out the problem. Any ideas? Also my p-values look really bad for stats that should be more predictive

  2. If I use this formula for a bunch of different stats and continue to put scores into the sheet will the different stats change throughout the season from the games I’ve entered? For example I’m doing it for NHL and if I continue entering scores each day will things like goals against per game change as I enter more and more scores?

  3. Cheers for the Video! Excuse me for butting in, I would appreciate your opinion. Have you considered – Millawdon Upright Athleticism Trick (do a google search)? It is a smashing exclusive product for earning quick money with this simple betting system minus the headache. Ive heard some awesome things about it and my friend finally got astronomical results with it.

  4. Lovely Video! Sorry for butting in, I would love your initial thoughts. Have you researched – Millawdon Upright Athleticism Trick (Have a quick look on google cant remember the place now)? It is a smashing one off guide for earning quick money with this simple betting system without the hard work. Ive heard some awesome things about it and my mate at last got amazing success with it.

  5. Hi, I tried analyzing some other stats, like the following listed below, and the intercept was ‘-42’ , would I not use this value then when multiplying and adding coefficients ? I get a really large number. Away_Def_SRS
    , Home_Def_SRS, Away_Points_Allowed, Home_Points_Allowed

  6. At pro- football reference.com does not list, team schedules, away vs home. This make it difficult to copy and paste. Any suggestions how to format this?

  7. Hey great content I appreciate your help and time. One thing maybe you could help me with. I get the ASRS perfectly fine, but the HSRS I am getting N/A for a few of the teams. When I go to my schedule I copy that home teams name and replace it with the same exact name in my SRS tab and now the HSRS is coming up, but now the ASRS is getting N/A for that team. I dont get it because it’s spelled the exact same for the SRS tab, Home column and Away column. Tried troubleshooting myself, but can not find anything. Thanks!

  8. I am having an issue when regressing the model where I am only getting fitted data on the ASRS fit line and no data in the HSRS fit line. Please help if you can! Thanks in advance

  9. So if my R square is .942102 it is saying it is 94% accurate in explaining the margin of victory?

  10. Wow…this is a lot more work than just saying “ The Jets got rocked last weekend, so there’s.no way they’re winning this Sunday.” 😂 🏈 Thank you for your videos.

  11. Can you help with that ASRS formula i keep on getting N/A and im doing everything you do cant seem to find the issue

  12. Cheers for this, I’ve been looking for “soccer betting predictions” for a while now, and I think this has helped. You ever tried – Meyackentae Foundational Magic – (do a google search )?

    It is a great exclusive guide for discovering how to use this method to finally win at betting minus the headache. Ive heard some pretty good things about it and my friend got great results with it.

  13. Thanks for the video and especially the website!! Everything I need to start building some models

  14. Do you have an opinion on using a single multi linear regression formula or using multiple single regressions to account for multiple dependent variables ? I’m using Liberty Basic.

  15. Excels for sports betting is the most stupid shuff i have seen. There only 1 thing we need 2 know about whom 2 bet on n thats on which team most money is on,simple as that coz everything is fixed.

  16. Could you make a follow up video just explaining how to apply our model week to week in the nfl for example?

  17. IMO you just exaggerate the losses if you get this wrong. Can remove critical context then create more confidence. Needs to be taken with independent analysis

  18. This works out, If you wanna bet right you ll need to have a high level of statistics and econometric knowledge

  19. Could you do one of these for NBA? I want to create a linear regression model for it but don’t know what stats to use and what y value to use from what data to predict ML or spread

  20. Great video. And what it shows above all else is just how utterly tedious betting singles on sport truly is . Makes you wonder why anyone bothers. There must be easier ways to make some money.

  21. Many thanks, been searching for “martingale betting system simulator” for a while now, and I think this has helped. You ever tried – Ameliaten Bankify Bigshot – (do a search on google ) ? Ive heard some amazing things about it and my mate got great success with it.

  22. love your channel, I have a couple questions in regards to scaling your bankroll that i hope you can answer:
    – What’s the maximum bankroll you can have if your betting 2.5% per play?
    -How do you deploy a huge bankroll of lets say $7million if your doing 2.5% per play like do you spread out the 2.5% with different sportsbooks? what’s a good strategy?

  23. Please help. I am trying to make a model for the Bundesliga. I have plugged in soooo many stats/advanced stats and can’t find anything with an R-Squared over 25%. I have 4 years worth of games, and my dependent variable is the margin. Is the margin harder to predict? Is that why all of the stats I am using are 17 to 25%? I am running out of ideas.

  24. What is Episoketren System? I’ve noticed several awesome things about this popular training program.

  25. I appreciate your effort a lot. But cant you make same kind of analysis for soccer in one of major leauges? For instance it can be total goals over 2,5 . It will be usefu for non-us bettors because sports like baseball, football, basketball mostly famous in us. Soccer is the core betting of all around the world.

  26. Appreciate Video clip! Excuse me for chiming in, I would appreciate your thoughts. Have you heard about – *TheSportsCash. Com* It is a great one off guide for highly winning sports betting system without the headache. Ive heard some incredible things about it and my cousin after a lifetime of fighting got excellent success with it.?

  27. Regression betting will also help lock in profits and decrease your losses.   Don’t forget…..”it isn’t how much you win,  it’s how little you lose!”

  28. Hello SBT. I have question: how many independent variables do you usually has in your models? How high should be your R square to start test model? Best regards, thanks!

  29. Hey, would you manage to create a model for A Virtual Sports betting site? The games are played after every 3 minutes(8 games/ 16 teams). I’m guessing it is based on a certain algorithm

  30. One thing I’ve learned about doing stats is how important strength of schedule is… stats are useless unless you know how hard or easy it was for a team to obtain those stats.

  31. the greatest success that ive ever had was by following the Simple Sports Goldmine (just google it) without a doubt the most helpful remedy that I have ever followed.

  32. excellent video. even tho it’s linear regression and basic in concept, this is still a bit difficult to put together. do you have any models available for download online or something? maybe something more advanced? i keep track of my bets in excel and have analytics, but don’t have a model to make my picks

  33. lol this guy bets like 5 dollars a slip and talks about losing runs for years at a time. No wonder he thinks no one can sustain long term, cause you suck!! hahah

  34. Love the content – quick question, where can I pull all results for college bball games this season? Sports-reference doesnt seem to have that. Thanks in advance!

  35. I don’t think you have a chance to win in sports betting unless you except the facts that sports are rigged.

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