Following on from our sequence in predicting soccer matches. Right here is the newest video within the sequence.

In earlier movies, we’ve labored out the prospect of a objective being scored in a match after which used that to determine what number of objectives we thought had been more likely to be scored.

On this video, we break down the evaluation to have a look at particular person groups and produce odds by historic information.

When you already know this information it is possible for you to to make a judgement on which betting or buying and selling technique you want to use.

Hyperlinks for gadgets on this video: –

The site I used to browse information is www.soccerstats.com

Knowledge within the discussion board right here –

https://www.betangel.com/discussion board/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=14776

Different movies on this sequence: –

Predicting what number of objectives – https://youtu.be/uKEZTq4guo8

Predicting associated odds – https://youtu.be/bZLSfWZ3mG4

Predicting objectives or no objectives – https://youtu.be/V-PKglUoPt4

#betting #buying and selling #soccer #betfair

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58 COMMENTS

  1. Would you do the same thing for Champions League games? Would you use local leagues to determine the avg goals scored or use previous UCL stats?

  2. You should put up a video showing us how to pick the winning team in a football match. Im not really a fan of trading but I love to have a bet.

  3. Great vid Peter, would you be able to do a calculation based on stats for working out true match odds at all ?

  4. Hello Peter
    Great work as always.
    I would love to see a video on how to predict the highest scoring half in a football match, the data that needs to be taken into account and so on.

    Warm wishes from Mauritius

  5. Thanks Peter. I too am interested in inter-related markets and cross-matching. I would be interested to see a video on this.

  6. I had no idea there was this relationship between eulers numbers and gpg, I can’t quite work out the link in my head, how did you come across it? Edit: Ah, I think I’ve worked it out, similar esque as the poisson distribution

  7. Great video, very interesting. Can you let me know where on the Bet Angel forum I can find the spreadsheet data?

  8. Hi Peter,I am a very interested subscriber to your channel and I would very much like to be good at predicting the out come of football. I am in a super six team at work and I am no good at picking a good team and I hate guessing any tips in how to go about selecting the right team?

  9. I would really like to know how to do this calculation on a calculator but I’ll be quite honest,you’ve lost me.Perhaps I’m just too old for this.

  10. How did you come up with the power of e? I can’t seem to find that video . Sorry for being annoying and thank you for your hard work

  11. I want to ask is if possible to make this calculations for each outcome for home win, draw, away win and etc?

  12. Excuse my brain lol but how would this work for the numbers you get for scored+conc per match going off soccer stats site? I have followed your process for both home and away scored+conc but the formula spits out a number which is so close to 100% when you convert to odds its like 1.15. have I done it wrong or?

  13. Great video
    Maybe not related this.. but if you came to a good % for btts yes which would be most advantageous, back yes! or lay no! Or does in not make much difference as the book is balanced
    If that makes sense ?

  14. Thanks for these series of videos very informative really helps with what the market is actually saying and what my game selection has returned and how I compare them.

  15. Dear Peter, there are so many Bet Angel videos I don’t know where to start. Can you select ten or so videos I could watch in order to get my head around how to use your software, primarily for horse racing, once I have mastered that, perhaps I’ll then move on to football. Cheers Peter!

  16. Really enjoyable and insightful video. I can’t get my head round how to apply this to the corners market, can it be ? I usually bet on Asian corner markets and use the past 5 home games for home team and last 5 away games for away team to form a conclusion. Then if the market price is higher than what the percentage price of the historical data is then I will play. However I agree with what you are saying that we should be predicting instead of simply using historical data only

  17. Great video for using specific stats for odds compiling. Hopefully it stimulates some to take note and action, rather than using a simple approach to betting.
    👏

  18. Excellent video, logical progression from the last one dealing with predictions using the Euler formula. It’s a shame I didn’t have a school teacher like you back in the day, you clearly have the knack of explaining your chosen video subject with absolute clarity. This latest video has now highlighted where I have been going wrong with my assumptions about reading/interpreting football stats and taking them literally. Thank you for the “aha!” moment.

  19. Good choice of teams Yours (Southampton) and mine (Leicester) (MemphisFlash) on your forum. Great video, loving your new formats

  20. Just a tip, you can use =exp() in excel instead of using the power function, same for R and python. Nice video.

  21. Great video as always!
    I use stats but just to give me some kind of guidance in what I might expect in that match. Like goals in set pieces for example . Bundesliga 1&2 are quite famous for teams that are very strong on this Aspect of the game.
    But I always leave the decisions for the inplay. Even for lower odds the team really have to convince me and fill up some criteria’s that I have for a back or a lay. Also some knowledge of the league helps as it shows that the game ca change very quick and the position would lose its value.
    Anyway, thanks for sharing Peter. Would be lovely to see more videos like that.

  22. Absolutely brilliant! Thank you very much Peter, you’ve knocked this for 6! Please, yes, give us more! 🙂

  23. Great informative video as always, I always struggle when trying to use data for strategies but this has me brimming with new ideas!

  24. Your magical Eulers Formula.Totally fascinating .
    Your depth of knowledge is mindblowing.
    Can you recommend an Excel book for dummies to get me started on understanding the linking of data to spreadsheets?
    Have been looking at home bias in relation to correct score trading on low scoring probability matches.
    Dutching the selection of scores some prematch,IP and looking for team intent in order .to trade out IP for scratch or profit.,
    Fascinated by using the implied edge of 0-0,0-1,1-0,1-1,2-1,2-0……F/H,S/H or full match.

  25. From all this videos looks like you know many intermarkets correlations. Please give me a hint how can I estimate the second half market before kick off. Betfair doesn’t offer this market , only bookmakers. I’m fed up off bookmakers and how to estimate the price for “team to win either half”. Please give me a clue or do a video. Thank you

  26. You’re vids are great, Peter. But in this one it definitely looks like you’ve quite literally scalped and greened-up!

  27. Excellent video. Full of priceless information to help football trading become profitable in the long run.

  28. Superb, more of this please, Can you also do a video on Betfair Historical Data, I’ve downloaded a few but can’t get them to open

  29. I can never understand when commentators say …. Team A has not won at Team B for 10 seasons. Makes no sense. Different players / managers / recent form etc Great advice as always. Those 10 previous meetings can’t influence today’s game.

  30. These are exactly the kind of videos I like. I’ve learnt a lot from them and they do inspire me to try new things.

  31. Brilliant! I’ve been looking for a way to use data more effectively so this has been very interesting. Yes, please expand! Eg how do you determine and apply additional adjustments to the figures? Weighting? What are the most important weighting factors when re-calculating?

  32. This is great stuff Peter! I still have much to learn but your videos are always instructive. Got a question: If you have a game where the average no of goals is as low as 0.65 is it better to trade Under 2.5 or Under 3.5 market? How would you approach this with this formular?

  33. Fascinating video as always. Would be great if you could put the link for other videos that you mention. 👍

  34. Great insight again as always. This is a really fascinating topic and I for one would certainly be interested in more videos/information.

  35. Very interesting. I found some of your much older videos on football and predicting goals earlier and found those helpful too. I have noticed that the other traders I follow Base trade selection heavily on the teams fitting narrow criteria based on the last 6 to 8 matches, but they never go into the reasoning & method for using that as a basis to predict the upcoming match. I have done a lot of analysis of horse racing in the past both my own and based on Adrian Masseys site, but can see I was stopping at the leaning on lamp post stage and not taking it forward to the next step of really looking at whether it is a good basis for predictions

  36. been doing reasonably well of late looking at results history between teams & basing where I put my money on that, doesn’t always work but when it does it’s quite lucrative

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