After a near-miss in Iceland, Kev’s whisking us away to Brazil, and is backing an in-form side to pick up a home win.
In-form hosts to win again
Guarani v Sampaio Correia
Tuesday 20 July, 23:00
Iceland was kind to us for 78 minutes last night, but then the odds-on favourites Vikingur snatched a winner against Keflavik in a 2-1 victory. We didn’t quite hold back the Viking horde for long enough, but at least some of you will have traded out.
We’ll head to Brazil now, because there’s an intriguing top-half clash in the second-tier Serie B, and we’re going to back one of the division’s in-form sides to pick up a win.
Guarani only finished 13th in Serie B last season, but they have made an altogether more encouraging start to this campaign. The Indigenous are on a four-game winning streak, a sequence that has taken them into the top three. They are the division’s top scorers with 22 goals from 12 games, and they have won three of their last four at the Estadio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa.
Sampaio Correa lost 3-2 at home to Coritiba last time out, and they have taken just a point from their last three matches. In their last away game they needed a last-gasp equaliser from Ciel to rescue a draw, and they have only won one of their last six on their travels. The last time Sampaio Correa visited Guarani, only a stoppage-time penalty saw them avoid defeat, and Guarani have a better line-up now.
I’m not usually keen on backing odds-on shots to win at home, but Guarani are in superb form, and they can take maximum points against a side that has faded after a decent start to the campaign. It’s also worth noting that the visitors face a gruelling 1800-mile journey just to get to Campinas.