0:00 – Intro (Watch this first)
3:04 – Be Realistic
4:22 – Only Bet With Money You Can Afford to Lose & Budget for WORST CASE Scenario
6:12 – Be Careful with Exotic Bet Types
8:25 – Don’t Overthink It
9:26 – Line and Juice Shopping
10:22 – Watch for Reverse Line Movement (RLM)
11:35 – Be a Contrarian
13:19 – It’s Not Just About the $$$
14:39 – Know When to Walk Away
15:04 – Have Fun

This is a video in which the idea came to me this weekend after having spent 20+ hours writing a baseball model in R and still being no where close to done.

Not everyone has the time, resources or ability to write complex models to bet on sports with. However I do believe there is still value in betting on sports without a model that comes in the value of entertainment. While I still maintain that anyone betting without a model will lose in the long run, that doesn’t mean its a waste of time. Casino games are impossible to beat, yet I still play casino games occassionally in Las Vegas. It’s simply about how much you are willing to pay for entertainment.

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  1. im just tired seeing all these videos assume or are directed toward recreational (or noobie) bettors and start explaining from ZERO, or a little above waterline level. do i need to listen again and again to what i already know? i guess i do

  2. This was one of the most gut wrenching “advice” videos I ever watched. If you believe this garbage you are already a loser and there’s no hope for you. First, if you don’t believe you can get an edge, you won’t look for one, and will never find one. Two, if Bill Belichick doesn’t put much stock in analytics (or models), and I don’t either, I’m in good company. Games are too complex and are in constant flux. Models by themselves don’t work. So then your back in the same boat of using your judgement which is the problem for most people. So the only answer is to improve your judgement. The best way to do that is to analyze less, not more. Keep it simple. Clarity is the other answer, not discipline. Discipline is a lie. Do you need discipline to know to go to the bathroom? I hope not, but I bet you have a lot of clarity unless you want to have to change your underwear.

  3. What is a ‘model’? And what dose it represent, can someone explain me shortly, i want to learn but i dont realy get it..

  4. I find it very arrogant to say the only way you can possible win is to have a model. Models are fairly new in terms of sports betting and people have been betting for a long time time and I promise not everyone always lost.

  5. For fantasy basketball this year do you think people should get there money back since there is no playoffs

  6. Actually parlays don’t have any bigger disadvantages than the combined probability of winning is smaller (which is expected). The house fee is the same. I didn’t believe it as well but then calculated it for an example.

  7. False hope. Gambling is one hell of a drug. I Lost so much money & time betting on sports. Even if we win we still will lose. I wish you all the best.

  8. Once again, thanks for sharing your perspective. It seems that you transitioned from one who bet without a model to one who bet with a model. Can you suggest some resources that you found helpful.

    Kept it up!

  9. I got a question, assume someone has a model that hits 53.5%. So just barely making a profit… no parlays no teasers… what unit size, assuming a 53.5% edge would justify paying for a line service. And do you find value in line services?

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