The countdown to the Super Bowl is on and the guys break down Championship Sunday with their Conference Championship picks ATS. First up they’re joined by DFS expert and Green Bay Packers’ fan Jon Jackson (@JonBoyBeats) to help preview the NFC Conference Championship game. Then they’re joined by Three Dog Thursday host and Tampa Bay Bucs radio sideline reporter TJ Rives (@BucSidelineGuy) to break down the game from a Buccaneers point of view.

Next up the guys start their AFC Conference Championship preview by bringing on the Don of #BillsMafia Adam Pelletier (@AdamPelletier) to break down the game from a Buffalo point of view. Then they close things out with their Chiefs representative Danny Solomon (@DannySolomonn) sizing up the game from a KC perspective. Check out Danny’s podcast “Sorry We Love Football.” Then the guys close it out by giving their final picks for who moves on to Super Bowl Sunday.

(06:20) – Green Bay Packers Preview w/ Jon Jackson
(22:34) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview w/ TJ Rives
(39:52) – Buffalo Bills Preview w/ Adam Pelletier
(58:48) – Kansas City Chiefs w/ Danny Solomon
(01:17:35) – Final Conference Championship Picks

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    As I was watching the second half of the Bucs versus Saints game last week, I was thinking that neither team was very impressive. Both teams had ups and downs, especially on offense. In my mind, the winner would probably end up losing in Green Bay in the NFC Championship game.

    I love anticipating what the point spread will be on each game. In this case, I was expecting the Packers to be 4-point favorites, and that’s exactly how the line opened. At that price, I was comfortable betting Green Bay. Now that the line has dropped to 3.5, and then 3 (as of Wednesday morning, which is when I wrote this article) I am definitely siding with the team from the frozen tundra.

    Here are four arguments favoring Green Bay in this spot:

    Argument #1: The rest factor. The Packers will be at home for the third straight week, while the Bucs will be traveling for the third consecutive week.

    Argument #2: The revenge factor. Do you really want to face Aaron Rodgers a second time after you have crushed him earlier in the year? I don’t think so. Back in Week 6, Tampa hammered Matt LaFleur’s team by a 38-to-10 score. That’s the only game all season where Rodgers did not throw a single TD pass. Oh man, he will be super focused to get some payback!

    Argument #3: The matchup. Tampa’s defense ranked number one in the league against the run. That’s great, but they finished 18th in terms of passer rating allowed. That’s very bad news when facing Rodgers and company. I know that they held them in check earlier this season, but it’s not going to happen again.

    Argument #4: The extra day. Green Bay gets an additional day to rest and game plan after playing last Saturday’s first game of the day, while the Bucs played the late game Sunday.

    I could have added the cold weather, as it is expected to be -6 degrees Celsius at Lambeau Field. However, Tom Brady has played many games in the cold with the Pats, but the rest of his teammates might not enjoy the weather too much, though… So I guess that could be argument #4B!

    I do like the Packers enough to put some money at risk.

    Official pick: Packers -3

    Professor MJ

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