Texas quarterback Casey Thompson (11) scrambles for a long gain against Texas Tech during the first half of an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
- #25 Texas is a 5-point home favorite over #12 Oklahoma State on Saturday (October 16th, 12 pm ET) at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, in Austin, Texas
- The Cowboys rank eighth in defensive efficiency per SP+, while the Longhorns rank eighth in offensive efficiency
- Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction
After a devastating loss in the Red River shootout in Week 6, #25 Texas (4-2, 2-1 Big 12) will look to regroup in Week 7 against another undefeated team. #12 Oklahoma State (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) comes to town riding a seven-game winning streak dating back to last year, and will be looking to knock off its third straight ranked opponent.
#12 Oklahoma State vs #25 Texas Odds
|Oklahoma State Cowboys||+180||+5 (+100)||O 59 (-115)|
|Texas Longhorns||-220||-5 (-120)||U 59 (-105)|
Odds as of Oct. 12th at DraftKings.
Despite their crushing loss to Oklahoma, the Longhorns still opened up as a 5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 59.
Kickoff is scheduled for Noon ET on Saturday at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, in Austin, Texas, with FOX providing the national broadcast. The forecast currently projects as a perfect day for football, with plenty of sunshine and 72 degree temperatures expected.
Cowboys Rely Heavily on Defense
Two weeks ago the Cowboys handled #25 Kansas State by 11 points and last week they were victorious over #21 Baylor by 10. The impressive back-to-back victories bumped them up seven spots in the polls, and this week’s contest is their lone remaining versus a ranked opponent until the final week of the season versus #4 Oklahoma.
Oklahoma State has been carried all season by its defense, which ranks eighth in defensive efficiency per SP+. They’re allowing just 18.6 points and 305 total yards per game to enemy programs, and have yet to surrender more than 23 points in any contest.
1. Georgia – 91.3
2. Michigan – 87.3
3. Oklahoma State – 82.1
4. Wisconsin – 76.4 pic.twitter.com/o5VeQUyWih
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 12, 2021
They’ve racked up a +34 point differential through five games, which is even more impressive considering they haven’t scored more than 31 points in a game. The Cowboys’ offense will likely end up being this team’s Achilles Heel as it simply hasn’t performed at a high enough level.
Oklahoma State ranks 100th in yards per play (5.1) and 93rd in offensive success rate (40%). They’re going 3-and-out on 28% of their drives, and starting quarterback Spencer Sanders has nearly as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (5).
Oklahoma State has the nation’s No. 78 offense in this week’s SP+ rankings, allows 7.4 tackles for loss per game (No. 116), and averages only 3.4 yards per carry (No. 106). Spencer Sanders has thrown five TD passes and four INTs. The Texas defense should bounce back this week.
— Wescott Eberts (@SBN_Wescott) October 11, 2021
Sanders was picked off three times in last week’s 24-14 win over the Bears, but running back Jaylen Warren bailed the Cowboys out with two rushing scores, while the defense limited Baylor’s sixth ranked rushing unit to 165 yards fewer than its season average.
Shutting down the Texas offense won’t be as easy, and Sanders and Co. are likely going to need their highest output of the season to keep this game close.
2022 CFP National Championship Odds Tracker
Texas Full of Offensive Talent
You can’t blame the Longhorns offense for their 55-48 loss to the Sooners last Saturday. Texas racked up 388 yards through the air, and 128 yards on the ground, but were gashed on the defensive side of the ball.
They coughed up 662 yards to Oklahoma, including 323 through the air and 339 on the ground. It was the highest scoring game in the history of the Red River rivalry, but the Longhorns should experience some positive defensive regression against Oklahoma State’s underwhelming offense.
Casey Thompson started the season as a backup pic.twitter.com/i9iZNBzn8C
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) October 9, 2021
Casey Thompson threw 5 touchdown passes versus the Sooners, giving him 14 in total since taking over the starting role, while stud running back Bijan Robinson racked up his fourth straight 100+ rushing yard performance. Robinson averaged 6.9 yards per carry and found the end zone for the eighth time, while surpassing his yardage total from a season ago.
“This kid may be the best player in the sport. This kid is big time.”
BIJAN ROBINSON, WHAT A RUN 😳 pic.twitter.com/oxWpxlfplT
— ESPN (@espn) October 9, 2021
Yes, the matchup versus the Cowboys is daunting, but no team has slowed the Longhorns down since Thompson was installed as QB #1.
Oklahoma State vs Texas Pick
Texas has put up point totals of 48, 32, 70, and 58 since Thompson’s promotion, and the Cowboys will be hard pressed to keep them below 30 points. The Longhorns rank eighth per SP+ in offensive efficiency, and lead the Big 12 in points, total yards and rushing, all while averaging just 0.8 turnovers per game.
Defensively of course is a different story. They’re allowing 29.2 points per game but that number is heavily skewed by a 58-0 shutout victory over Rice. Oklahoma State isn’t going to hang 35+ points on them, but they’ll certainly be able to do their part to help push this game over the total.
The over is 4-1 in Texas’ last five games, with each of those outings reaching at least 58 points. These two programs played to a 41-34 Longhorns victory last season, and each of their past three meetings have produced at least 66 points.
Pick: Over 59 (-115)
Chris began his career at Hockey Night in Canada over 15 years ago. He has since worked at TSN for over 12 years as a writer, line-up producer, field producer, newsroom supervisor for Sportscentre, and presently as a promotions producer.