Oklahoma's Title Odds Fade After Loss to Baylor; Michigan, Cincinnati Improve
Baylor linebacker Terrel Bernard

Baylor linebacker Terrel Bernard, left, and defensive lineman TJ Franklin, right, celebrate a tackle against Oklahoma during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Nov. 13, 2021. (AP Photo/Ray Carlin)

  • No.8 Oklahoma lost to No. 13 Baylor in Week 11 of college football
  • The Sooners’ National Title odds faded drastically as a result
  • Michigan and Cincinnati both improved their Title odds in Week 11

The CFP National Championship odds experienced reshuffling following a dramatic Week 11 of college football. No. 8 Oklahoma plummeted down the board after suffering their first loss of the season at the hands of Baylor.

No. 6 Michigan and No. 5 Cincinnati both improved their title odds in Week 11, while Georgia remains heavily favored to win the National Championship.

The table below shows the updated CFP National Championship odds following Week 11.

National Championship Odds

Team Odds
Georgia -125
Ohio State +350
Alabama +450
Oregon +3000
Oklahoma +4300
Oklahoma State +5000
Michigan +5000
Cincinnati +6000
Notre Dame +8000
Wake Forest +10000
Michigan State +10000
Wisconsin +20000
Utah +30000
Iowa +30000
Pittsburgh +30000
Baylor +30000
Mississippi +30000
NC State +50000

Odds as of November 14th at FanDuel.

Down Goes Oklahoma

Oklahoma (9-1) saw its National Title odds fade from +1400 to +4300 after losing to Baylor in Week 11. The Sooners entered the game undefeated and riding a 17-game winning streak dating back. Baylor’s defense dominated Oklahoma’s offense in a 27-14 victory.

Baylor held Oklahoma to 260 total yards — OU’s lowest output ever under coach Lincoln Riley.  QB Caleb Williams threw two interceptions before getting benched in the second half for Spencer Rattler. The preseason Heisman favorite didn’t fare much better, completing 4-of-6 passes for 36 yards.

Oklahoma’s loss to Baylor virtually crushes their chances of making the College Football Playoff. The Sooners have been skating by with several close losses this season, which hasn’t impressed the playoff committee. OU was ranked eighth in the initial CFP rankings despite being undefeated at the time.

History suggests a one-loss Oklahoma can still make the CFP if they run the table and win the Big 12 Championship. Each time OU has made the CFP, they’ve had a loss on their resume. This year just feels different, however, as Oklahoma hasn’t been as dominant offensively as they’ve been in years past.

2021 Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker

Michigan, Cincinnati Among Risers

Michigan (9-1) and Cincinnati (10-0) were big risers in the CFP National Championship odds following Week 11. The Wolverines improved from +8000 to +5000 after beating Penn State 21-17, while the Bearcats went from +10000 to +6000 after Saturday’s action. Cincinnati beat South Florida 45-28 on Friday.

Cincinnati still needs outside help in order to become the first Group of 5 school to make the CFP. One-loss Alabama, Ohio State, and Oregon teams are all likely to make the playoff over an undefeated Cincinnati. Luke Fickell’s team doesn’t have any big games left on their schedule, so they’ll be rooting for chaos in the final stretch.

Oklahoma’s loss to Baylor has truly opened the door for several CFP longshots.  Oklahoma State, Notre Dame and Wake Forest are one-loss teams who also saw their National Championship odds improve after winning in Week 11. The Cowboys had the most impressive victory, thumping TCU by a 63-17 score.

Oklahoma State might have a CFP case if they beat Oklahoma in Stillwater and capture the Big 12 Championship. It’s a similar story for Michigan, who will need to beat rival Ohio State and capture the Big Ten Title. Cincinnati still has the best outside shot, as their fifth-place CFP ranking highlights the respect the committee has for their undefeated record.

Georgia a Tier Above Rest

Georgia remains a heavy National Title favorite after Week 11 of CFB. The Bulldogs took down Tennessee 41-17 on Saturday thanks to a strong outing from their rushing attack. UGA went a perfect 8-0 against SEC competition this season, winning their conference games by an average of 32 points.

Oddsmakers agree that it’s pretty much Georgia and everyone else when it comes to the 2022 National Championship. Ohio State might be UGA’s biggest threat for a title, as the Buckeyes became the second-favorite after decimating Purdue in Week 11. CJ Stroud and OSU exploded for 624 yards against the Boilermakers.

Reigning champion Alabama stayed put at +450 in FanDuel’s National Championship odds after beating New Mexico State 59-3 in Week 11. Alabama has the Iron Bowl vs Auburn upcoming, in addition to a potential SEC Title clash with Georgia. The Tide won’t make the CFP if they lose to Auburn, but they could sneak in with a strong showing against UGA in Atlanta.

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Brady Trettenero

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