Royal Ascot was a successful week on the whole for my outsiders series. I tipped up 15 horses across the five days, with a 33-1 winner in the form of Amtiyaz being the highlight on day one. Although there were no more winners to come, there were places at prices of 40-1, 40-1, 33-1, 22-1 and 22-1 later on.
I’m hoping to build on that success with some further glory, this time at Newbury on Tuesday. I’ve found three horses at bigger prices who I believe can out-run their prohibitive odds and you can find all my analysis and tips below.
It’s a small worry that the blinkers make their return, but I’m hoping FROZEN WATERS (16-1) can prove that his flop in this headgear back in November was just a one-time blip. He’s run twice since pulling up in that aforementioned Chelmsford race, catching my eye at Goodwood.
Making his first start for 189 days over 1m 1f, he looked to be floundering as they turned for home before flying into a never-nearer third in this grade. He was upped in class for his next start over 1m 4f, far from disgraced in a bunched finish after missing the kick.
Dropped back a furlong in distance, with a strong pace to chase, he stands out like a sore thumb in this field. A return to softer ground is another huge positive, having finished second on both his previous soft ground runs. Dropped a pound since his most recent start, he’s set to go very close under five-pound claimer Liam Browne.
Three places are on offer in this small field and I like the chances of GOLDILOCKS (14-1) for Richard Hannon. The yard runs a pair of runners, with River Pride more fancied, but Goldilocks caught the eye on debut at Goodwood last time.
Not unfancied in the market, she was slowly away and ran very green early on, becoming detached after two furlongs. She looked set to finish all but tailed off, but she made some eye-catching late gains under the stands rail. That was over six furlongs and today’s stiffer seven furlongs should be right up her alley.
She’ll be far more streetwise on this occasion, especially as Hannon’s horses are known to improve from their first run. Pat Dobbs retains the ride and if she does progress as expected, she should be in the thick of things late on.
It’s never easy winning a handicap off top weight, but everything looks right for FRONTISPIECE (12-1) to run a big race. The obvious draw to him is his exceptional record at Newbury, winning twice at the venue from five starts. His overall record is 51124, with his most recent outing at the track being a fourth on seasonal return in this grade.
He went down by just two lengths, only beaten by three younger, progressive rivals. There was no disgrace in that and two subsequent starts at Ascot and Epsom have seen him compete against much stronger opposition than todays.
This ease in class is certainly in his favour, as is the return to his “second home”. Amanda Perrett’s string are among the winners at present, which is another tick in the box, and he goes on softer ground. With all that in mind, I’m scratching my head as to why he’s a double-figure price under Kieran Shoemark.
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