running of the Preakness Stakes will take place on Saturday, and while there is
no Triple Crown on the line this promises to be another exciting running of
this storied Stakes race. Kentucky Derby winner Authentic heads a strong field
of 11, but notably Tiz The Law has decided to skip the Preakness after losing
the Kentucky Derby.
In 2019, War of
Will was victorious in the Preakness Stakes at 6-1. He beat of a
field of 13 that day, however Maximum Security did not run in that race.
Authentic will be slated in as the favorite, but there is plenty of chances to
see another upset in the 2020 Preakness Stakes.
– Ridden by Sheldon Russell and trained by Steve Asmussen. Excession ran 2nd
to Nadal in the Rebel Stakes back in March. Once that race was over though he
had surgery to remove a knee chip. He is now returning off of a 203 day lay-off
to take a shot in this race. Coming off a lay-off and a surgery and jumping
into a field like this is going to be too much for this horse to handle. He is
just 1-9 lifetime, and hasn’t beaten any horses of this caliber.
#2 Mr. Big
News – Ridden by Gabriel Saez and trained by Bret Calhoun. Mr. Big News ran
very big in the Kentucky Derby at 46-1. I had pretty much dismissed his
chances, but he made a big move around the turn and sustained that effort for a
3rd place finish. There is nothing to say he couldn’t get the same
trip, and make the same move. You are still getting value on this horse, as he
was listed at 12-1 on the morning line. I think once again that a 3rd
place finish will be the ceiling though.
Collector – Ridden by Brian Hernandez and trained by Thomas Drury. This was
my pick to upset Tiz The Law at the Kentucky Derby prior to the horse being
scratched. I am likely going to come right back to him here. He was won 5 races
in a row, all in dominating fashion. He has good tactical speed and can work
out a trip right behind Authentic. He is an absolute must use on a wager.
#4 Swiss Skydiver
– Ridden by Robby Albarado and trained by Kenny McPeek. The filly enters
in here in an attempt to upset the boys in the Preakness. Last time out she
lost the Kentucky Oaks to Shedaresthedevil after a brutal stretch run against
Gamine tired them both out. That race was a mile and 1/8. She shortens up just
a touch in this race, and that will help but I am not sure she can beat Art
Collector or Authentic. She ran versus Art Collector in the Toyota Bluegrass at
Keeneland finishing 2nd beaten by 3 lengths.
Words – Ridden by Florent Geroux and trained by Bob Baffert. Thousand Words
was a huge scratch in the Derby, as it allowed Authentic to get an uncontested
lead up front when it was likely that he would send with Authentic. Now, he
doesn’t need the lead to win, but it is also his best opportunity. There is
some pace in this race, and it’ll be interesting to see what Geroux does on
him. Either way I don’t like this ones chances here. If he sends to the lead
it’ll be a grueling trip with Authentic, and if he’s taken back off the pace I
believe Art Collector is just better in the same scenario.
Jesus’ Team. Jose D’Angelo trainer profile saddling his first Triple Crown starter
Team – Ridden by Jevian Toledo and trained by Jose D’Angelo. Will be one of
the longest shots on the board and with good reason. He has lot to other
longshots in this race, and doesn’t appear to have much of a shot. He does have
2 wins, but those were against nowhere near the caliber he is facing today. He
is a good horse, but not for this level. Will likely be sitting mid-pack, but
don’t expect a movement from there.
Traffic – Ridden by Horacio Karamanos and trained by Saffie Joseph. Not
sure what the idea was in the Derby. He rushed up to 2nd place just
off Authentic and pressed while wide only to then severely drop off and finish
a well-beaten 8th place. The post here is better, and I think the
trip will be better too. This is still the same horse that lost to Authentic by
a nose in the Haskell. I think a better trip will be worked out for this one,
and the value is once again there on this horse.
Player – Ridden by Paco Lopez and trained by Steve Asumussen. I really
liked Max Player heading into the Derby because he had a good post, and was
going to get a good trip. He did sit on the rail, and saved ground throughout,
but never was able to close into the hot pace set by Authentic. I think this is
another horse that can provide value on the end of Trifecta’s and Superfecta’s
but that is it.
– Ridden by John Velazquez and trained by Bob Baffert. We all saw what he did
in the Kentucky Derby. Just an absolutely wonderful performance holding off Tiz
The Law down the stretch for the win. There is no Tiz The Law here, but there
is plenty of chances for this horse to be beat. The pace will once again be
hot, and Art Collector will be a fresh horse who is sitting in right behind
him. I’m not sure he’ll get the lead easily by himself, but if he is able to
get to the front with no pace pressure he will win again for sure. Drawing the
outside certainly helps his cause for doing just that.
Pneumatic – Ridden by Joe Bravo and trained by Steve Asumussen. He is 3 for
5 lifetime and is coming off a nice win in the Pegasus at Monmouth. I think
Pneumatic can sit a very good trip and provide real value on the back end of
wagers. He is 20-1 on the morning line and will likely be around that price at
race time, but his style is very much set up for this race and I really like
him to run the type of race that Mr. Big News ran in the Kentucky Derby.
Liveyourbestlfie – Ridden by Trevor Mccarthy and trained by Jorge Abreau.
Finished in 2nd place in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga at 14-1 prior to
coming into this race, but that race wasn’t as good as it normally is. This is
a significant jump in class, and the post doesn’t help. He’s going to have to
use early speed to get position in behind Authentic, but not sure he has the
class to then pass any horses of that caliber.
1: #3 Art Collector
2: #9 Authentic
3: #10 Pneumatic
4: #8 Max Player