Week 11 College Football Picks Against the Spread
Caleb Williams rolling out

Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Williams (13) passes during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Texas Tech, Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021, in Norman, Okla. Oklahoma won 52-21. (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)

  • Week 11 of College Football features several intriguing matchups on Saturday, November 13th
  • Undefeated Oklahoma travels to Baylor, while Mel Tucker’s Michigan State hosts Maryland
  • Read below for the best ATS picks for Week 11 of the college football season

The 2021 College Football season is heading into its 11th week, and there’s some intriguing matchups on tap for Week 11. The jam-packed slate on Saturday, November, 13th features numerous games with betting value.

Oklahoma comes off its bye week to face Baylor in Big 12 action, while Michigan State and Maryland clash in Big Ten play. Down in the SEC, South Carolina aims to become bowl eligible by beating Missouri.

Here are betting odds and three ATS picks to consider for Week 11.

Oklahoma vs Baylor Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Oklahoma Sooners -5.5 (-110) -220 O 62.5 (-110)
Baylor Bears -5.5  (-110) +180 U 62.5(-110)

All odds as of Nov 10th at DraftKings

Pick#1: Sooners Torch Bears

Oklahoma (9-0) will be out to make a statement when they face Baylor (7-2) at McLane Stadium in Week 11. The Sooners are currently ranked eighth in the CFP rankings despite being one of only four undefeated teams in the country. Lincoln Riley’s group had a bye week to prepare for this Big 12 showdown.

Oklahoma’s passing attack has gotten a jolt with Caleb Williams replacing Spencer Rattler. The freshman pivot has thrown for over 1,000 yards and 14 TDs with only one interception this season. He’s primed for a big day facing a weak Baylor secondary that was just torched for almost 500 yards by TCU.

While Williams will lead the charge offensively, the OU defense will be the reason the team covers the spread. Baylor relies heavily on their running back duo of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner, who have rushed for 1,055 yards and 601 yards respectively. They’ll be stifled by an elite Sooners’ rush defense allowing only 111 yards per game.

This is going to be an angry Oklahoma team out to prove they belong in the CFP conversation. They’ve won seven straight games against Baylor, including a 27-14 victory in Norman last season. With an extra week of rest, look for the Sooners passing attack to lead them to a convincing Week 11 road win.

  • Pick: Oklahoma -5.5 (-110)

2021 College Football Conference Championship Odds Tracker

Maryland vs Michigan State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Maryland Terrapins +13 (-115) +385 O 61.5 (-110)
Michigan State -13  (-105) -525 U 61.5 (-110)

Pick #2: Spartans Beat Up Terrapins

Much like the Sooners, Michigan State (8-1) is going to be another determined team entering Week 11 of College Football. The Spartans are ranked seventh in the latest CFP rankings behind No. 6 Michigan despite holding a head-to-head win over the Wolverines. MSU suffered a 40-29 upset loss to Purdue last week.

Michigan State’s upset loss to the Boilermakers wasn’t all that surprising when you consider Purdue has a history of playing spoiler to Big 10 contenders. Purdue has one of CFB’s best receivers in David Bell, who was able to torch the MSU secondary. Maryland, though, is notably absent of elite offensive playmakers.

This is a solid bounce-back spot for the Spartans against a struggling Maryland team. The Terrapins have lost four of their past five games and are 0-5 ATS in that span. They’ve been burned by strong rushing teams like Iowa and Minnesota, which sets up another monster game for Heisman favorite Kenneth Walker III.

Michigan State holds the matchup advantage in almost every area, including turnovers. Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa has thrown nine picks and will face heavy pressure from MSU’s excellent pass rush. The Spartans have won the last three meetings with the Terrapins, and they’ll be extra motivated to win big Saturday.

  • Pick: Michigan State -13 (-105)

South Carolina vs Missouri Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
South Carolina Gamecocks +1 (-110) +100 O 55 (-110)
Missouri Tigers -1  (-110) -120 U 55 (-110)

Pick #3: Gamecocks Run Over Tigers

South Carolina (5-4) will look to become bowl eligible when they face Missouri (4-5) in Week 11 SEC action on Saturday. The Gamecocks opened as +3 underdogs in this game with oddsmakers expecting a potential letdown spot for Shane Beamer’s team after a big win over Florida last weekend.

This line is shifting towards a pick’em, and South Carolina could even be favored come kickoff. It’s hard to argue with the line movement when you look at Missouri’s struggles this season. The Tigers have only covered the spread once all season and are allowing an SEC-worst 479 yards of offense per game.

South Carolina has the run game to beat Missouri by at least a touchdown. They outgained Florida 284-82 on the ground last weekend and should feast on a Tigers’ run defense allowing a whopping 270 rushing yards per game. South Carolina has two 300-plus yard rushers in ZaQuandre White and Kevin Harris.

Missouri is getting the benefit of the doubt playing in their own stadium, but the reality is the Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Missouri’s QB situation is up-in-the-air with Connor Bazelak injured, while Gamecocks’ Jason Brown showed what he’s capable of against the Gators last weekend.

You have to weary of letdown spots when betting college football, but this South Carolina team should keep the momentum rolling with bowl eligibility up for grabs. They have the rushing attack to exploit one of the country’s worst defenses and should win in convincing fashion at Memorial Stadium.

  • Pick: South Carolina +1 (-110)
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Brady Trettenero

Sports Writer


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